NWS Forecast Discussion

Below is the latest Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service for our area. It gives great insight into why the forecasters are making the predictions they are listing in the "zone forecasts" around the area, as well as some additional information about how the overall "big picture" of the weather systems are affecting us. Sometimes, very specific information is available here that is not available, or otherwise generalized, in the public forecast.

Forecast Discussion for MPX NWS Office
FXUS63 KMPX 290958 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
458 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

It is a quiet morning across the Upper Midwest, with thunderstorms
still rumbling across the central Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley.
The quiet weather will continue here until a mid level wave on water
vapor imagery over western South Dakota this morning slides east to
Minnesota by this evening. Modest mixed layer instability should
limit the overall thunderstorm threat through tonight, and models
are struggling to develop anything too organized. Therefore,
maintained chc PoPs beginning late this afternoon across western and
southern MN, spreading east to WI overnight.

Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail with
temperatures near normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Cool and unstable weather continues into the Holiday weekend as a
mid level trough pivots over the Upper Midwest. We then dry out
and warm up at the beginning of next week over all but possibly
locations along I-90 as western ridging works toward the central
CONUS and a mid-level trough skirts the area to the south.

Friday looks to feature cyclonic flow and attendant scattered
showers and thunderstorms, along with the passage of a weak cold
front. Shear and instability progs are limited, so do not expect
severe storms, although a few stronger ones could produce small

Given the cool northwest flow and relatively low heights,
Saturday temperatures will top out in the low/mid 70s. Sunday we
moderate into the upper 70s to mid 80s prior to the passage of a
secondary cold front. The better chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be on Sunday eve from south central MN across
west central WI, given the frontal position at time of peak

The boundary looks to dwell south of the area through the
beginning of the upcoming week. This will mean a good probability
of dry weather for us, along with warming temps as the western
ridge builds toward the central CONUS. The Fourth of July will
feature near-normal highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with
continual moderating into Thursday of next week, when highs in
the 85 to 90 degree range are expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected through late morning across central
MN and western WI, with improving conditions thereafter. Otherwise,
mainly VFR skies will prevail with winds gradually shifting
around from WNW to N with speeds in the 5-10 kt range.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings expected throughout the morning push. Then
VFR conditions expected for the rest of the day with some showers
and storms possible tonight.

Fri...VFR. Chance MVFR with likely TSRA. Winds variable 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds WNW 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Chance of TSRA/SHRA. Winds light and variable.





NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion