lakeville weather journal

:: Storm Report

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 07:10:44 -0600

A very intense storm system that brought snow to the MT Rockies ejected across the Dakotas today. As the surface low spun over South Dakota and the upper level low rotated over eastern Montana, warm moist southerly flow increased across IA and southern MN. This primed the atmosphere for the development of several lines of thunderstorms. As each short-wave impulse of low pressure shot out of the surface low, the storms progressed from southwest to northeast. Rain began in earnest around the Twin Cities by 1100 and continued through the afternoon. After a break in the late afternoon and early evening hours, lines of storms redeveloped over SW MN. The line which contained a few supercells produced tornadoes across southern MN with some minor damage and no injuries. That line decreased in intensity as it moved across the Twin Cities, but nonetheless brought strong winds and some brief heavy rain. Although no severe thunderstorms were reported in the Lakeville area, it is possible that some residents experienced minor water ponding and some small-branch downings from these storms. No hail was reported with these storms in the Lakeville area. 0.52" of rain fell.

:: Rain Report

Tue, 10 Jun 2008 07:04:16 -0600

As another late spring storm took shape over the Montana Rockies, the first wave of precipitation from the system moved into the area briefly overnight, dropping 0.03" just before midnight.

:: Rain Report

Sun, 08 Jun 2008 22:37:08 -0600

Frontal boundary positioned over the MN/IA border had MCS develop and wash copious amounts of rain over SE MN. Part of that system wandered far enough north to give us an unexpected 0.24" of rain in the early morning hours.

:: Rain and Wind Event

Fri, 06 Jun 2008 22:33:37 -0600

After the storm system - culprit for rain and thunderstorms yesterday and today - exited the area, a very strong wind event occurred in its wake. Wind gusts to 43 mph were recorded here. Also, final rain from the system occurred off and on through the morning and afternoon, totaling 0.83".

:: Rain and Storms

Thu, 05 Jun 2008 22:31:59 -0600

Rained 1.43" today, from non-severe thunderstorms and rain showers. Occured during mid-afternoon hours and again after dark.

:: Rain Report

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 22:31:03 -0600

Rained 0.012" today, showers left over from dissipating thunderstorm MCS (did not storm here).

:: Rain Report

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 22:25:39 -0600

Rained 0.01" today, showers left over from dissipating thunderstorm MCS (did not storm here).

:: Winter Finally Ends? Spring Finally Begins?

Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:33:00 -0600

This winter has been a hard one. Mother Nature has been relentless in every way across the US, and here in Minnesota - and Lakeville in particular - we have not been excluded from extreme cold, heavy snow, or cooler-than-normal temps post-vernal equinox. By now we should be hitting our normal highs with regularity. The days are longer, and the sun's energy becoming more intensely directed upon the northland. However, we just had ice-out on Lake Marion last weekend!

Snow-wise, I am officially tallying up our snowfall measurments at lakevilleweather.com for the 2007-2008 winter season. We received a total of 48.50" of snow, split about evenly between 2007 and 2008 "halves" of the season. This is more than last season's tally of 30.75", but only slightly less than the regional average of 52". Not too shabby. On a side-note, all of lakevilleweather.com's snowfall measurements were ingested by the Citizens Weather Observation Program system, and we reported regularly to the National Weather Service office in Chanhassen (NWS-MPX) our real-time measurements during major snow events. It is very possible that when you saw a snowfall reading on the evening news for Lakeville, it came from us!!

Cold-wise, we set a new windchill record this season of -38.2, which occurred during daylight hours on February 10, 2008. Temperatures averaged below 40 in March, which was below normal. It was a cold winter, for certain!

Now we face a possibly tumultuous spring with sharp contrasts between cold polar air and warm tropical air clashing directly overhead. Such a scenario could occur today into Friday as a surge of warm and moist air from the south and west today is met by a pool of cool air from Canada. Thunderstorms will develop as the resultant low pressure circulation develops over the mid-plains in response. The first round should focus on western and southern MN, and as the entire synoptic mid- and upper-level storm rolls off the Rockies overnight and across the southern half of the upper midwest Thurs-Friday, heavy thunderstorms will develop over MN again Thursday afternoon and evening, and then rain shower activity will linger through Friday.

The contrast from our pre-system high temp today of 75 degrees and the post-system lows nearing 35 will be dramatic. Some models do not rule out a wet snowflake for parts of the state Friday! Spring finally begins???

Also, on a final note, more journal entries are in store for lakevilleweather.com as we head into the spring...we enjoy doing our prognostics for you!

:: Spring Begins with Snow - 8" of it!

Fri, 21 Mar 2008 20:30:33 -0600

Not a-typical for Minnesota, March has doled out a doozy of a snowstorm for the first day of spring. Part of a seemingly never-ending train of storms that has plagued the midwestern US since the end of February, today's storm was well modeled and predicted due to the consistent nature of the pattern. What forecasters at NWS and media/commerical WX outlets didn't do is overhype the snowfall potential. That was good and bad. Good because the ground is warming (and we are just past equinox, so solar radiation remains on the rise), and thus despite the intensity and volume of the snowfall, cleanup was a snap. Bad because where the warnings and advisories projected 3-5" for the metro area, and we got 5-10", people once again feel slighted by meteorologists.

But the forecasts were really pretty dead-on. Model outputs and forecast methodology proved very scientific and solid. Overall, the NWS really said 2-4" overnight, and 2-4" today. This was a split of the total snowfall potential for the system. 4-8" was therefore the storm total target, and it was hit...just not exactly when they said it would be hit. Most of the snow fell between 7am and 2pm. Timing is always the hardest part of a forecast.

Here at lakevilleweather.com, we measured snowfall at 0800, 0900, and again this afternoon around 1700. We ended up with a storm total of 8.0" measured. As is our practice, we reported to NWS-MPX, and our measurement is listed as the "official" record for Lakeville in their storm reports and PWS's today.

:: Wind Chill Warnings Remain - More Snow Monday

Sun, 10 Feb 2008 09:44:35 -0600

Yesterday's Alberta Clipper rushed in and through in perfect form, and as predicted. Frontal passage here in Lakeville happened around 1100 AM, and the change was swift and evident. The snow stopped, the wind shifted and increased in intensity, the skies cleared, and the temps fell...hard! Our overnight low was -14 which we hit at 0700 this morning, which had dropped steadily from a high of 24 just before the front passed yesterday.

We will slowly climb out of the below-zero temps today and tonight as the strong high pressure ridge moves east. Winds will not subside until after 1400 today, so wind chills will remain in the -35 to -20 range through noon, and in the -10 to -15 range after noon. This has prompted the NWS to continue wind chill warnings through the day.

Tonight the pattern begins to shift dramatically once again, as Pacific air moves over the cold dome of arctic air that is gripping the region. The resulting advection will produce a nice band of snow tomorrow, with models pointing to a just-after the morning rush time frame for arrival. 2-4" will again be the general potential from the system as snow bands clear by tomorrow night.

:: Snow and Ice for Lakeville

Sun, 03 Feb 2008 22:13:19 -0600

A strong low pressure system has moved out of the Great Basin tonight and into the lower plains. Ahead of the low, moist air has surged in from the Gulf of Mexico and has advected north across IA and MN. As the upper jet digs around the system cold Canadian air will plunge in behind the low pressure center as it treks overnight from KS to NE, and into NW IA. Right now the storm track will keep Lakeville in the "warm sector" of the system for a brief time tomorrow morning and afternoon. Expect precipitation to begin sometime around or just after the morning rush and vary between snow flurries and freezing drizzle or sleet. By lunchtime, precipitation will increase in intensity with periods of heavy wet snow alternating with snow pellets/sleet pellets. By late afternoon all precip should be snow, with accumulations around 4" the rule for the area. A winter weather advisory has been issued...please check back for updates on advisories.

:: Lakeville Sees 6" of Snow, More to Come

Wed, 26 Dec 2007 21:37:32 -0600

The Christmas Day through today snow event blanketed us with a half-foot of snow. LakevilleWeather.com measured 6.0" total from the storm, while another local observation put the city on the map at 6.2", according to reports from the National Weather Service. Our snowfall reports were also contributed to the NWS throughout the event, as LakevilleWeather.com participates not only in the Citizen Weather Observation Program (CWOP), but also in the SKYWARN program. We have two trained spotters that take observations (and storm spot in the summer!)

This most recent snow puts the LakevilleWeather.com total snowfall accumulation for this season at 22.25"...which also is the total snowfall for the month of December. This monthly total is already a station record, and with the current trend, we should have a record-breaking season. (Last season's snowfall was 30.75")

More snow is indeed in the near-term forecast, as our current synoptic pattern will remain in place at least into the New Year. This pattern has several waves moving along a rigorous upper level jet stream. The paths of each system trend to have very typical or "textbook" winter storm characteristics. The waves are born from the tumultuous Bering Sea, and will typically pound into British Columbia or the PacNW, and intensify on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains. From here they trend towards the central plains, where they can add in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico...warm, moist low-level advection up the Mississippi River valley is common this time of year. About the time the system has entered the Missouri and Mississippi valleys, frontogenesis is well under way as cold air from the Canadian providences and the northern plains collides with the Gulf air (or sometimes moist Pacific air), with the epicenter of the system a well formed extra-tropical winter cyclone.

This year, the bulk of these systems have taken paths across MO and IA, keeping MN somewhat dry in comparison to the rains and ice storms that have plagued the corn belt and south through the MS delta. But, for the storms that have tracked north enough, we have received more than average snowfall. The next system progged to bring snow to us tomorrow night into Friday has plunged across the Cascades and has dropped into the Great Basin where it continues to deepen and intensify. GFS and NAM models have different outcomes for the wave, with GFS (our more successful model this winter) tracking the wave into So KS before swinging up the Illinois River. This track will keep us out of the major dynamics, but moist return flow already evident in western MN counties will keep our local atmosphere primed for snowfall.

Keep checking forecast updates, as things will change for sure within the next 24-36 hours. Right now, common initial guesses are 1-2" for the next round (remember, this was the same "guess" made for the most recent snow event that ended up dropping 6"). Stay tuned!!

:: 5.5" of Christmas Snow so Far

Wed, 26 Dec 2007 07:02:13 -0600

As of 600 am on 12/26, we have measured 5.5 total inches of snowfall since 1400 on Christmas Day. 3.8" arrived before midnight, and 1.7" arrived since then. Snowfall continues to fall at an appreciable rate this morning in Lakeville, with the forecast for the snow bands to continue through lunchtime.

:: Second "Major" Winter Storm of Season

Sun, 23 Dec 2007 10:24:34 -0600

Although we have already seen 3 needless deaths across the area from the winter storm impacting our region, the winter storm now plaguing eastern MN and all of WI has only intensified. We now (1000 CST hour) have the snow beginning in earnest across the metro as the main energy of the systems spills retrograde from WI back into MN.

Overnight the surface low responsible for the event moved towards Lake Michigan and deepened significantly. As the upper level dynamics bend in the wake of the low, mid level frontogenisis has occurred north and west of the low. The area of dynamic convergence will spawn new snow bands that circulate in from WI over the metro area. In addition, winds have (and will continue to) strengthen behind the system. Winds now are clicking up to 15mph sustained with gusts over 25mph from the WNW. This will bring visibilities down to between 1/4 and 1/2 mile with the snow blowing in.

Accumulation-wise, we have seen only an additional 1/4" as of this writing, but forecasts point to a good potential for 3-4" by late this afternoon. A snow and blowing snow advisory has been posted for the area. Although weather is treacherous, we know that folks will be out and about regardless - what with holiday shopping and tonights Vikings game. Please, from all of us here at lakevilleweather.com - BE CAREFUL OUT THERE, STAY HOME IF POSSIBLE. DO NOT BECOME A STATISTIC.

:: More Snow to Come

Mon, 03 Dec 2007 14:42:20 -0600

After receiving 6.5" here at lakevilleweather.com, topped with about an 1/8th of an inch of freezing rain Saturday, our 48 hour reprieve will end Tuesday AM, as a shortwave system from Alberta will enter the area. The responsible system is comprised of mid-level energy that has pushed into the intermountain west from the Pacific NW, coupled with a nearly-stationary boundary draped over the Dakotas. The low pressure will drive through the state from NW-SE during the day tomorrow triggering the snow event. Overnight tonight, pre-system advection will raise precipitable water values and get the atmosphere primed for the snow event. Latest forecast modeling shows the potential for 4-5" of snow accumulation throughout the day. The 00Z model runs will give the best look at potentials for this to hold true. In the meantime to prepare the area, NWS-MPX has issued a Snow Advisory. Stay tuned for developments and updates.