lakeville weather journal

The Christmas Day through today snow event blanketed us with a half-foot of snow. LakevilleWeather.com measured 6.0" total from the storm, while another local observation put the city on the map at 6.2", according to reports from the National Weather Service. Our snowfall reports were also contributed to the NWS throughout the event, as LakevilleWeather.com participates not only in the Citizen Weather Observation Program (CWOP), but also in the SKYWARN program. We have two trained spotters that take observations (and storm spot in the summer!)

This most recent snow puts the LakevilleWeather.com total snowfall accumulation for this season at 22.25"...which also is the total snowfall for the month of December. This monthly total is already a station record, and with the current trend, we should have a record-breaking season. (Last season's snowfall was 30.75")

More snow is indeed in the near-term forecast, as our current synoptic pattern will remain in place at least into the New Year. This pattern has several waves moving along a rigorous upper level jet stream. The paths of each system trend to have very typical or "textbook" winter storm characteristics. The waves are born from the tumultuous Bering Sea, and will typically pound into British Columbia or the PacNW, and intensify on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains. From here they trend towards the central plains, where they can add in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico...warm, moist low-level advection up the Mississippi River valley is common this time of year. About the time the system has entered the Missouri and Mississippi valleys, frontogenesis is well under way as cold air from the Canadian providences and the northern plains collides with the Gulf air (or sometimes moist Pacific air), with the epicenter of the system a well formed extra-tropical winter cyclone.

This year, the bulk of these systems have taken paths across MO and IA, keeping MN somewhat dry in comparison to the rains and ice storms that have plagued the corn belt and south through the MS delta. But, for the storms that have tracked north enough, we have received more than average snowfall. The next system progged to bring snow to us tomorrow night into Friday has plunged across the Cascades and has dropped into the Great Basin where it continues to deepen and intensify. GFS and NAM models have different outcomes for the wave, with GFS (our more successful model this winter) tracking the wave into So KS before swinging up the Illinois River. This track will keep us out of the major dynamics, but moist return flow already evident in western MN counties will keep our local atmosphere primed for snowfall.

Keep checking forecast updates, as things will change for sure within the next 24-36 hours. Right now, common initial guesses are 1-2" for the next round (remember, this was the same "guess" made for the most recent snow event that ended up dropping 6"). Stay tuned!!

Posted by pierre at 9:37 PM | Permalink

As of 600 am on 12/26, we have measured 5.5 total inches of snowfall since 1400 on Christmas Day. 3.8" arrived before midnight, and 1.7" arrived since then. Snowfall continues to fall at an appreciable rate this morning in Lakeville, with the forecast for the snow bands to continue through lunchtime.

Posted by pierre at 7:02 AM | Permalink

Although we have already seen 3 needless deaths across the area from the winter storm impacting our region, the winter storm now plaguing eastern MN and all of WI has only intensified. We now (1000 CST hour) have the snow beginning in earnest across the metro as the main energy of the systems spills retrograde from WI back into MN.

Overnight the surface low responsible for the event moved towards Lake Michigan and deepened significantly. As the upper level dynamics bend in the wake of the low, mid level frontogenisis has occurred north and west of the low. The area of dynamic convergence will spawn new snow bands that circulate in from WI over the metro area. In addition, winds have (and will continue to) strengthen behind the system. Winds now are clicking up to 15mph sustained with gusts over 25mph from the WNW. This will bring visibilities down to between 1/4 and 1/2 mile with the snow blowing in.

Accumulation-wise, we have seen only an additional 1/4" as of this writing, but forecasts point to a good potential for 3-4" by late this afternoon. A snow and blowing snow advisory has been posted for the area. Although weather is treacherous, we know that folks will be out and about regardless - what with holiday shopping and tonights Vikings game. Please, from all of us here at lakevilleweather.com - BE CAREFUL OUT THERE, STAY HOME IF POSSIBLE. DO NOT BECOME A STATISTIC.

Posted by pierre at 10:24 AM | Permalink

After receiving 6.5" here at lakevilleweather.com, topped with about an 1/8th of an inch of freezing rain Saturday, our 48 hour reprieve will end Tuesday AM, as a shortwave system from Alberta will enter the area. The responsible system is comprised of mid-level energy that has pushed into the intermountain west from the Pacific NW, coupled with a nearly-stationary boundary draped over the Dakotas. The low pressure will drive through the state from NW-SE during the day tomorrow triggering the snow event. Overnight tonight, pre-system advection will raise precipitable water values and get the atmosphere primed for the snow event. Latest forecast modeling shows the potential for 4-5" of snow accumulation throughout the day. The 00Z model runs will give the best look at potentials for this to hold true. In the meantime to prepare the area, NWS-MPX has issued a Snow Advisory. Stay tuned for developments and updates.

Posted by pierre at 2:42 PM | Permalink