lakeville weather journal

Rain, rain, go away? Now that a "good soaking rain" has turned into "worst flood in history" for southeastern MN, people want a reprieve. We have been, in comparison, lucky in our neck of the woods. Rainfall totals for Lakeville over the last two days have totaled 2.28" here at our station -- compare that with Witoka, MN which has seen 20"+, and major flooding, mudslides, and fatalities from this wet and stormy pattern.

The TC Metro is now shrouded in fog and mist as things to our south and west "regroup" a bit. Strong low pressure is troughing over the Rockies and will push out over the plains this afternoon. Meanwhile, the surface front associated with this system will push across Dakota and occlude the warm/stationary front now running along I-90 in southern MN. As this occurs, the warm front will translate slightly north and east producing showers and thunderstorms through the day today for the southern half of MN. Once we enter the "warm sector" overnight tonight, the atmosphere will reprime again, albeit quickly, for another round of storms that should push through our area by mid-Tuesday morning.

Variables to consider in this forecast are all over the spectrum, and the various computer models are hindered by the sloppiness and complexity of it all -- 12Z, 18Z, and 00Z runs yesterday for NAM and GFS all lacked continuity. So, generalization has remained in the forecast grids for many WFO's...and the common theme has been "you will get wet"!

For all intents and purposes here at LakevilleWeather.com, are greatest concern, and threat, from the remainder of this unsettled pattern will be rainfall amounts and severe weather. I will address the latter first:

Current regime of cooler temps and densely-clouded atmosphere will provide little convective potential for severe-level storms today. However, partial clearing is occurring behind current squall line moving across SW/Srn MN, with greatest clearing west of SUX at this time. W-SW of here surface temps and dp's are rapidly climbing through the 70's, and if cloud cover is limited, should hit 80's for certain by midday. This will provide best CAPE scenario for squall/MCS development as the long wave trough and cold front pushes into this airmass. Convective inhibition values, however, are also being progged with high marks by both RUC and NAM runs for forecast periods through tonight. Basically, this is due to very warm wide-area advection flow from the south-southwest that will persist until CFP. Capping will prevail unless some other element breaks the potential free. Long-story-short: severe potential - at least for the Lakeville area - seems minor at this time.

Rainfall amounts, however, remain a big challenge. Precip. water values and "nature of the beast" type history of our current system could spell more "training" type showers through today. As front approaches, however, we are tasked with the assumption that an MCS/squall event that will have cells in latter-mature/dissipation stage will pass through our area late between midnight tonight and noon Tuesday. Given the vast amount of moisture in the system, the latter event could spell some heavy downpours that cause flash flooding in our area. Topsoil is saturated, and runoff in urban areas will be street-borne as storm sewers struggle to keep up.

In summary, it would be best to tune into local news and weather forecasts this evening as the "main event" for our area will not shape up until the overnight hours. Here is a quick crack at the forecast for Lakeville:

Rest of Monday - Fog and drizzle persist until afternoon. Then a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 67. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday - Partly Cloudy. High of 80. Northwest wind 5-10 mph.