:: Stormy Stormy
The unsettled pattern, previously thought to be exiting the area today, has stuck around and continues to plague southern MN with rain and the threat of hail and wind. The zonal flow of the upper level jet continues to streak across the MN/IA border, and little airmass transgression has occurred. Therefore, stubborn warm/stationary front remains over the border and is still the focus of main forcing and genesis for convective weather.
Currently (1700 CDT hour), SPC is watching area of initiation that broke some modest capping in srn MN today. Surface indications and RUC modeling indicates vorticity and surface heating pooled in SW MN and has kicked up some elevated convection, and is pushing ENE bound towards the TC Metro. Slight MCS characteristics are forming with this cell cluster as well, as it rides up on strong southerly low level advection and gets an upper jet steer associated with another shortwave ripple in the mid-layers. This increases hail threat with these storms and WW issuance is likely.
The SW MN MCS will propagate ENE and then easterly into WI tonight, with outflow wake carrying along with the shortwave and pushing the frontal boundary a bit further south overnight. This should spell some breathing room for clearing tomorrow over much of MN. After low stratus and fog burns off late morning, temps should rebound nicely. This will reset the stage for convective development again late Wednesday into Thursday AM, as yet another shortwave pushes in from the Sioux Empire and precedes a more significant cold front that should eject from Saskatchewan Thursday. Models are still struggling with the coupling of features from the stubborn corn belt front and the Canadian front, but hopefully the latter spells some drying for the region late this week and weekend. Your Lakeville Forecast...
Tonight...Thunderstorms likely after 5pm. Chance of rain 70%, and some storms could be severe with hail and damaging winds. Then fog develops after dark, with a low of 65 and light wind from the northeast 5 mph
Wednesday...Cloudy in the morning with areas of fog. Lifting and partial clearing by noon. High 83 by mid afternoon. Southwest wind 5 mph.
Wednesday Night...50% chance of thunderstorms after dark. Partly turning mostly cloudy with a low of 65.
Thursday...Thunderstorms ending by noon. Wind shifts to the NW 5-10mph by 2pm. High 75. Low 56.