:: Drought Relief/Severe Threat
It has been quite a while since the last entry...but it has been quite a while since any significant weather (other than the pervasive drought) has affected the area. I don't think I needed to give significant analysis day-after-day about the lack of rain -- you know all about it.
Lucky for Lakeville, things have shifted this weekend. A shortwave trough with an unseasonable pressure drop and an associated frontal boundary has provided the energy needed to develop some real rain makers for the Twin Cities Metro. Between 0300-0430 CDT this morning, a well formed MCS pushed ESE from the frontal boundary across central MN and into the TC Metro. Straight-line wind damage was reported across the state from Alexandria to St. Paul, and the classic "derecho" bow-shaped echo was noted on radar returns from that system. Torrential rainfall also occurred, with flash flooding reported across the area. LakevilleWeather.com's SKYWARN spotting team, amateur radio station KD0ASB, went out into the rain to report flooding in the Apple Valley and Lakeville areas. We reported 18" of standing water in the intersection of Co Rd 42 and Pennock, as well as several other areas with 2-3" of water standing or running over the roads. We recorded 1.75" here at lakevilleweather.com.
This afternoon, the scenario has "reset". As noted in the depiction above (Mesoscale Discussion #1725 from the SPC), the atmosphere is re-priming for another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as the front re-approaches the area. Ahead of the front, dewpoints are tagging 76-78°F in western MN. The MPX sounding this morning showed some slight capping, however, that feature is diminishing with the retro-expansive outflow from this morning's re-development of elevated convection from FBL-RST-LSE. Now, focus on initiation will be cues from NEXRAD and satellite imagry. At this time (21Z) some TCU's popping in central MN behind of small area of cumulus streeting acrs the central MN River valley. Would guess best initiation from these cues and RUC modeling at this hour would be across Stearns, Becker, and northern Wright Co's, with a squall lining up to move from NW to SE metro between 1700-2000 CDT. Best chance for severe development will remain on the western flank of the line, which will remain in best potential shear and CAPE. Also expect some training, or possible secondary development to occur right along the front as it sweeps through, with CFP around 00Z tonight.
Please check back for warnings and advisories posted live as they are issued here on lakevilleweather.com, and stay tuned to local TV and radio broadcasts for updates.