:: Severe Weather Update 1300 CDT
As noted in this AM's post, dryline was focus for initiation of severe cells. The first fired over Goodhue county just to our SE, and moved rapidly NE towards St. Croix and Pierce Co's in WI. Tornado warnings were issued in conjunction with this storm. Dynamics were easily read from both MADIS sfc plots and most recent RUC modeling...drying in SWrn MN continues, and dry slot is clearly evident on sat imgry. Dewpoints have dropped almost 10 degrees in the last 4 hrs here at Lakeville, proving the point. SPC now has carved out the TC Metro from the greatest risk areas.
Meanwhile, low pressure center deepens in Dakota, and has been inching NEbound. Steep lapse rates and height falls in vcty of the low triggered SPC to issue Tornado Watch 357 for the WC, NW and Nrn parts of MN. That watch now houses some cells that have reached severe levels, particularly around the confluence MN/ND/SD borders. With motion of the low towards the NE, and further development of storms on the SE flank of the circulation, convective activity may still affect the TC Metro later this evening.
CFP is still looking solid at near 00Z, and behind the front flow will shift rapidly from the NW, fetching in cooler and drier air. Because the low is so deep, winds will remain breezy/gusty through Saturday. Next system is progged to move another PacNW borne wave from across the front range and up over the plains and mid-MS valley by Tuesday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast grids from Sunday through Tuesday as a result, with seasonal temps (upper 70's).