:: Severe Weather Today
The sirens awoke Lakeville at 2:30am this morning as elevated thunderstorms erupted on the nose of the LLJ and associated warm frontal boundary, dropping .75" to 1" hail on our community right around 3am. Those cells raced northeast at 65mph on the swift flow of the LLJ. The Metro SKYWARN net (of severe weather spotters which we are a part of) activated informally and then stood down at 4:30am until further notice. That notice has been given and it looks like the NWS office in Chanhassen (MPX) is calling for net activation sometime around noon or 1300 today...which means this is when they think things will turn ugly for weather.
The upper level trough and the associated surface cold front is progged to push through MN today, making CFP around 00Z. Ahead of the front, strong to severe storms are forecast to fire in the unstable and primed atmosphere. The far eastern TC Metro and most of WI is in a "high" categorical risk for severe weather today...a rarity...and the rest of EC and Cent MN is under a moderate risk. System timing this morning, however, is a bit of a challenge. Local conditions are heating up, both temp and DewPt wise, and RUC runs have been consistent this AM in granting the highest severe weather indicies to the TC metro and SErn MN.
Now, clearing line has crossed into TC metro, as remnant stratocu from overnight has finally pushed off to the east. Question remains, however, is atmosphere destab'd enough to the west of the line to support storm development? It would appear somewhat of a dryline is occuring just to our west, as DewPts have dropped about 10 degrees on MADIS plots over the last hour. This could spell development will be imminent in the next two hours right on top of us, or just to our east....again...only time will tell. Due to congruity of the forecast elements, I am not changing my outlook for today. Please stay tuned to NOAA weather radio, or local TV and Radio stations for developing weather situations.