:: Windy and Wet (Update)
00Z model run tonight did shed some more light on specs for both short- and long-term forecasting. Short term synopsis remained unchanged. Elements I was looking for to confirm any severe weather potential tomorrow did show up...particularly CAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg tomorrow afternoon across the sern 1/3 of MN. Also, vert motion max's progged through the mid levels in same locales and Li's from 2-4 riding a nice moisture plume through the entire day would make one think we may have a rough Wednesday afternoon...and we just may. The question is initiation. Very mature squall/MCS line attm in Ern Dakotas will spread debris and remnants eastward overnight. Extent will be deciding factor for tomorrows weather day. My bet is for sufficient breakup and clearing to give us a decent shot at diurnal heating. With a still strong southerly LLJ and the progged vert motion, I think the CAP will not form. Expect initiation along a BJI-AXN line initially, in area of H70 convergent flow...let's say 18Z and thereafter. Secondary init will be off a shortwave impluse ejecting ahead of the chief and resident longwave. This will cause forcing in the max CAPE between 20-22Z and from STC-ULM. Mean storm motion from 220, as has been for this storm system.
Short wave will run east and bring MCS/squall with it overnight Wed, and one last surge of the southern LLJ will re-prime the atmosphere...a feature very pronounced by both NAM and GFS. Expect a "final round" of storms Thurs AM, and finally pushing through with the long wave CFP late Thurs afternoon. Bulk of energy will translate into an intense mid-upper low that will park south of Hudson Bay. Friday into Saturday, GFS ensemble points to another shortwave from Alberta that will ride a zonal jet off the MT front ranges. Powered by a cool fetch, another rainmaker will run a 50/50 chance of rain Saturday PM. Still a bit out for certain yet, but it looks like a wet start to the holiday weekend. Cooler, yes, but not cold. Here you go...including a peek at the weekend!
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. 60% Chance of Thunderstorms, some could be heavy to severe, mainly after 2pm. High 76. S winds 15-20 mph. Mostly cloudy after dark, low 52.
Thursday...Mostly Cloudy. 60% Chance of Thunderstorms before noon. High 72. Clearing skies and less humid after dark. Low 47.
Friday...Partly cloudy. High 68. Northwest wind 5-10. Low 48.
Saturday...Chance of thunderstorms. High 72. Low 50.
Sunday...Mostly cloudy. High 58. Low 42.
Memorial Day...Partly Cloudy. High 62. Low 45.