:: All is Well
Still working our way closer to MN fishing opener forecast finalization. Grids have shifted indeciseively for precip chances over the last 36 hours, however some alignment between models has begun to fall in place for Sat-Sun periods. First, a current synopsis: 0900CDT Thurs, weak cold front clearly defined by sfc wind elements on MADIS, running from Lake of the Woods, SSW to KFFM, to KATY, and then trailing back through SoDak. Really no pressure gradient along the CFB, but Canadian (AB) high pressure at fault for the boundary will move in quickly behind after passage today, causing winds to pick up quite a bit. Expect CFP at 19-20Z, with wind escalating somewhere around drive time.
Model focus then turns a watchful eye towards Fri-Sun period and precip/clds/overall synoptics to affect fishing opener. Polar jet remains zonal, with the max streak over western GL's for period. Central MN is also under main jet core, but not at a point where instability is too much of an issue. With cP high dominating through period...Albertan high entering region tonight will get reinforced by another area of high pressure sliding off Hudson's Bay, and setting up over GL's by end of period. Surface-based temps will moderate some after cfp today, but will quickly rebound as high pressure gradients subside. Dewpoints also remain moderate despite the cP moving in, thanks to some moisture retention from springmelt/greenup north of the border, with ensemble values never dropping below upper 40's/lower 50's.
General garden-variety precip chances will remain in the forecast grids from the NWS-WFO's, and I think they are merited at this point. We are talking 20-30% chc's tops here, and since the jet max is really farther north, Lakeville pops are negligible. Srn MN will remain dry. Due to the outlying possibility of surface-based advection triggering some splash-and-dash showers or isolated TSRA, but only after daytime heating max, close to 00Z Sun and 00Z Mon. As I finish off this entry, tem at 0930CDT is now 75. Today is going to get very warm in advance of the front!
Thursday...Mostly sunny, muggy, warm. High 87, calm winds turning WNW this afternoon 5-10mph. Clear tonight, low temp 54.
Friday...Clear. High 82. NNE wind 5-8 mph. Low 52.
Saturday...Clear skies turn partly cloudy. High 75. Light wind shifting SE through daytime hours. Very slight chance of passing shower or isolated thunder after 6pm. Low 55.
Mother's Day Preview...Mostly sunny, High 82.