:: Storm Update - 3/1 1000CST
Present model analysis by practially all local WFO's and Comm Wx offices are viewing this morning as the lull before all hell breaks loose for central MN. Overnight, we reveived 2" of relatively wet snow...well below the predicted 5-7" I progged in the last entry. At present time, developing elevated convection is pushing in from WI in bands over the metro. Some thundersnow and thundersleet has been reported, as mid-level temps have prevented the complete formation of snow crystals, but clouds remain ice laden. Periods of off-and-on again snow and sleet should continue through midday.
Then, by later afternoon, current area of elevated convection developing over EC and cent IA will rotate northward around the surface low, as it tracks towards cent WI. Current MPX and DMX WSR-88D's indicate a very broad area of moderate precip from CID westward through FOD and then a bit WNW from there. Movement of the area is N to NW, and will be the main bulk of moisture for the MN snow event. Currently, MADIS mesonet obs indicate that the western half of the precip from about FOD west and north has converted to snow, while a narrow band of mixed runs down I-35 and all rain east of there. As this area continues to wrap around the low, which is clearly drawing colder air in on the NW flank, the conversion to all snow should occur by the time the bulk of it is in srn MN.
Focus then shifts to "how much where" questions. Both 00Z NAM and GFS were in line on inits and concurrence again last night. Both models also supported precip max's along a curved axis - DLH-JMR-STC-MKT for the most part - which would see the heaviest accum's. Forecasts from the commercials on the AM news shows all tagged this with 18-20" potentials, and then just 6-8" for the metro. While 6-8" is not insignificant, I am still afraid the metro may see much more than that, given the movement of precip echoes on the WSR's, and the overall movement of the storm. Should the track be just a bit more easterly, and should more elevated convection rotate NW from IL and WI, we could see much more than 6-8". I am eagerly awaiting the midday model runs to see what may shape up in this regard synopticaly.
Final focus is on blizzard conditions. Currently, MOS outputs for KLVN do not support the worry, but some other spot check west of here do support that "borderline" worry that the WFO's have regarding issuing the blizzard warnings. I would expect that by just after lunch, the warnings will post given the intense precip and the pressure gradient and rapid height falls predicted for the remainder of the day...blowing snow and gusty winds coupled with the 1"/hr or heavier snowfall would make it a no-brainer.
WINTER STORM WARNING
Thursday...Cloudy, Snow and sleet in the AM possible with 1-2" accum possible. Then heavy snow developing after 2pm. 8-12" possible. Gusty ESE winds 15-20 mph. High 32, low 25.
Friday...Cloudy, snow tapering off after noon. Total storm accumulation 12-17" possible. Blustery and cooler, High 23. Low 19