:: March - In Like a ____, Out Like a ____!
With 73°F yesterday and 75°F predicted today, it is very hard to remember that only 20-some days ago we were getting a doubble-whammy of back-to-back snowstorms that dropped between 16"-24" of snow across central MN. Many thought this was indicative of March "coming in like a lion". However, with yesterday's funnel cloud sighting in Hampton (only a stone's throw from Lakeville), and the weekly outlook pointing at another potential severe weather event, one could argue that March is going to go out like lion. Our "lamb" weather most definately occured mid-month with the 35-35°';F doldrums and cloudiness we experienced...very typical of early MN springtime.
Not too much analysis in the prognostic models yet to shout about in the models, except for a very nicely defined trough just off the Pac-NW coastline that will push over the Rockies in the next 24-48 hours. Preceeding that major system, we might have a couple other chances to deal with convection, starting today as the left-front exit point of warm cT LLJ from the desert SW is poking into the southern part of the state. This means (1) higher and possibly record temps today, and (2) that the instability and low level moisture in place will touch off some splash-and-dash variety TSRA. Tomorrow, a weak but prevalent cool front will ease across the state, practically stationary by the end of the day over WC-WI. This will also serve as a focus area for possible TSRA development.
As stated, the real show will not occur until that western CONUS trough translates across the Rockies. This is looking like a late Wed-early thurs event to begin with, maybe with some warm front-sponsored elevated convection Thursday AM for certain. As the models begin to track the system, three variables will have to come together to make it memorable: 1) a rebound of dewpoints after tomorrows cold front passes. 2) a southwesterly flow, or southerly Gulf flow preceeding the system intensifying on the LLJ. 3) a coupled upper jet structure that causes enough shear or at least deepening of the low pressure center to support supercell structure.
Time will tell...