lakeville weather journal

After months of experimentation and tinkering, I finally have lakevilleweather.com on a new-level of technology. Last year, fellow weather website developers got into the use of AJAX (Asynchronous Javascript and XML) to create dynamic website that have weather variables updating every 2-3 seconds. The idea caught on with fire, and after a few refinements to fit the already-dynamic Movable Type platform (and a late, late night this weekend) we now have AJAX powered pages here.

I want to especially thank Ken True, who published some very straight-forward directions and supplied the scripts on his site, saratoga-weather.com.

But wait...there is more!! I also am now streaming KEC65 (NOAA Weather Radio for Minneapolis/St.Paul) over the website. And, I have jumped on the CafePress bandwagon...visit the store today and buy an official lakevillweather.com item!

I think I will need to employ a change log now, or some version history, as over the last year lakevilleweather.com has come a long, long way!

Posted by pierre at 8:57 AM | Permalink

With 73°F yesterday and 75°F predicted today, it is very hard to remember that only 20-some days ago we were getting a doubble-whammy of back-to-back snowstorms that dropped between 16"-24" of snow across central MN. Many thought this was indicative of March "coming in like a lion". However, with yesterday's funnel cloud sighting in Hampton (only a stone's throw from Lakeville), and the weekly outlook pointing at another potential severe weather event, one could argue that March is going to go out like lion. Our "lamb" weather most definately occured mid-month with the 35-35°';F doldrums and cloudiness we experienced...very typical of early MN springtime.

Not too much analysis in the prognostic models yet to shout about in the models, except for a very nicely defined trough just off the Pac-NW coastline that will push over the Rockies in the next 24-48 hours. Preceeding that major system, we might have a couple other chances to deal with convection, starting today as the left-front exit point of warm cT LLJ from the desert SW is poking into the southern part of the state. This means (1) higher and possibly record temps today, and (2) that the instability and low level moisture in place will touch off some splash-and-dash variety TSRA. Tomorrow, a weak but prevalent cool front will ease across the state, practically stationary by the end of the day over WC-WI. This will also serve as a focus area for possible TSRA development.

As stated, the real show will not occur until that western CONUS trough translates across the Rockies. This is looking like a late Wed-early thurs event to begin with, maybe with some warm front-sponsored elevated convection Thursday AM for certain. As the models begin to track the system, three variables will have to come together to make it memorable: 1) a rebound of dewpoints after tomorrows cold front passes. 2) a southwesterly flow, or southerly Gulf flow preceeding the system intensifying on the LLJ. 3) a coupled upper jet structure that causes enough shear or at least deepening of the low pressure center to support supercell structure.

Time will tell...

Posted by pierre at 8:36 AM | Permalink

Present model analysis by practially all local WFO's and Comm Wx offices are viewing this morning as the lull before all hell breaks loose for central MN. Overnight, we reveived 2" of relatively wet snow...well below the predicted 5-7" I progged in the last entry. At present time, developing elevated convection is pushing in from WI in bands over the metro. Some thundersnow and thundersleet has been reported, as mid-level temps have prevented the complete formation of snow crystals, but clouds remain ice laden. Periods of off-and-on again snow and sleet should continue through midday.

Then, by later afternoon, current area of elevated convection developing over EC and cent IA will rotate northward around the surface low, as it tracks towards cent WI. Current MPX and DMX WSR-88D's indicate a very broad area of moderate precip from CID westward through FOD and then a bit WNW from there. Movement of the area is N to NW, and will be the main bulk of moisture for the MN snow event. Currently, MADIS mesonet obs indicate that the western half of the precip from about FOD west and north has converted to snow, while a narrow band of mixed runs down I-35 and all rain east of there. As this area continues to wrap around the low, which is clearly drawing colder air in on the NW flank, the conversion to all snow should occur by the time the bulk of it is in srn MN.

Focus then shifts to "how much where" questions. Both 00Z NAM and GFS were in line on inits and concurrence again last night. Both models also supported precip max's along a curved axis - DLH-JMR-STC-MKT for the most part - which would see the heaviest accum's. Forecasts from the commercials on the AM news shows all tagged this with 18-20" potentials, and then just 6-8" for the metro. While 6-8" is not insignificant, I am still afraid the metro may see much more than that, given the movement of precip echoes on the WSR's, and the overall movement of the storm. Should the track be just a bit more easterly, and should more elevated convection rotate NW from IL and WI, we could see much more than 6-8". I am eagerly awaiting the midday model runs to see what may shape up in this regard synopticaly.

Final focus is on blizzard conditions. Currently, MOS outputs for KLVN do not support the worry, but some other spot check west of here do support that "borderline" worry that the WFO's have regarding issuing the blizzard warnings. I would expect that by just after lunch, the warnings will post given the intense precip and the pressure gradient and rapid height falls predicted for the remainder of the day...blowing snow and gusty winds coupled with the 1"/hr or heavier snowfall would make it a no-brainer.

WINTER STORM WARNING
Thursday...Cloudy, Snow and sleet in the AM possible with 1-2" accum possible. Then heavy snow developing after 2pm. 8-12" possible. Gusty ESE winds 15-20 mph. High 32, low 25.
Friday...Cloudy, snow tapering off after noon. Total storm accumulation 12-17" possible. Blustery and cooler, High 23. Low 19

Posted by pierre at 10:00 AM | Permalink