:: Storm Update - Sat PM 2/24
Much of today saw warm air advection and overrun continue. FZRA and PL throughout much of the day as result, changing all over to -SN to SN by 21Z. 12Z models and 18Z MOS avail to me attm show trend of SN through the night. MPX WSR-88D now showing western metro with heaviest band of SN. National NEXRAD comp paints more moisture moving north, while sat imgry showing dry fetch moving into TX and OK on the SW flank of the H8 low. MADIS confirms drier dewpts in this area. GFS had really reinforced the WAA and moisture conveyence on the eastern flank of the storm through the night, wrapping right into EC MN/WC WI. In fact, LLJ max exits over the TC metro on the GFS, and to punch the energy quotient, H3 jet steak exits over KMLI, with some coupling potential with the LLJ.
This would all support redev of conv and snow bands over SE MN/NE IA, with motion either NW or N of the bands. MPX WFO wrote this afternoon that they reinforce the 12-15" pops acrs the area. KARE-11 has progged 6-9" as of 1700 CST, WCCO "around 10", and KSTP went way down to 2-4". Thinking on the later was that storm track of main sfc low is too far south. Still not convinced that this will pan out, as the southerly fetch of drier air from NM and TX will kick it north a bit, and that both NAM and GFS paint a bit of a rex block to the east and north.
I am going with a 9-10" hunch now for the sundown-sunup period for Lakeville and the SE metro. Stay tuned!!