:: On the Cusp
System advanced more cold and drier air in from the NW last night than expected in the model runs, thanks to a short-lived H70 circ that developed near KGFK overnight and raced off towards CYQT skittering away from increasing low and mid-level jet from northwest...as of this writing, (1830Z-ish) wind shift has just occured here at Lakeville. Temp and wind field changeover is bisecting the Metro east/west attm. -SN now in report from KFCM, and 5°F cooler, bringing them right to freezing at SFC. As I write, temp is dropping here at Lakeville from a high of 43 this morning, and as soon as we get 32 and the back side of the rain shield, snow should follow...
Low pressure center is over KALO attm, progged well by both NAM and GFS, but the 00Z and 12Z NAM runs continued to trend a little more slowly on progress...GFS has moderated its quick pace enough to bring back in some confidence on my part. RUC is tracking well, and places low center near KCWA at 2200CST, with max wind field out of the NW just entering metro. GFS concurs, and places a nice precip max over metro between sundown and 1900CDT. Only prob with this prognosis is the drying effect of the rapidly expanding ridge that is now centered over KBIS. MPX WSR-99D depicts the drying effect nicely as the edge of the rain/snow shield seems to be eroding from west to east, now along a KBRD-KILL-KMML line. Precip max right now is painted over KMKT and along the MN river valley until near Jordan, MN where the metro heat island is diminishing the rates. Another blob of precip (all in RA) is moving N along the boundary from KRST vcty towards SE metro. With temps falling the way they are, this might be first shot of mixed to -SN fall here in LVN, due to arrive within next 45 to 90 minutes (19Z to 2030Z)...thence the MN river swath will hook in from the west and SW side to give us a fleeting shot of SN.
All of this...barring any redevelopment...should give us anywhere from 1-3" of slushy wet snow. I expect the tapering and clearing to begin just after sunset, as opposed to the 12Z model runs...mainly due to that ridge pressing in from the west. So...here is your New Years forecast for Lakeville...see ya in 2007!!
New Years Eve...snow develops between 1-2pm, 1-3" of slushy accumulation. Tapering off by 6pm. Temps drop to low of 25 overnight. Partial clearing by midnight. NW winds 10-18 mph.
New Years Day...Mostly sunny. High 30. NW wind 10-15, diminishing after dark. Increasing clouds overnight, low 27.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy. High 32. West winds 5-7 mph. Low 28.