:: Merry Christmas Forecast
Merry Christmas from Lakevilleweather.com!!
After being robbed by the previous system of any white Christmas chances, I was apethetic to update the postings regarding that storm. The event left the TC Metro half-white, and half-grey/brown, with the combo of ice and dormant vegetation in the south. While out and about on Friday, the MN River valley was definitively the factor in the snow making process...with cold air advection slipping southbound under the moderate southerly flow that was driving the RA/FZRA band northward, it must have pooled and abutted against the geographic feature of the southern bluffline (the Buck Hill/Cliff Fen/Johnny Cake/Pilot Knob "rim" of bluffs)...as anyone driving northbound on I-35W or MN-77 or even US-169 could see the immediate shift from bare ground to snow cover as they descended into the river valley. Now, with highs in the mid-upper 30's yesterday, that snow is mainly gone, and the rest of the snowfall that had blanketed the northern 1/2 of the Metro will be gone by sundown today with highs progged in the 40's.
ETA MOS is progging 44+ in fact, and if cloudiness continues to hold off from the approaching shortwave, we will hit it. Some considerations the models are not hitting on are the interaction of the upper low developing over the TX panhandle, being propped a bit by the 120kt jet max encircling it, and promoting some more moisture transport from the Gulf. The models do, however, denote a slight moisture transport over the next 18 hrs from the south...but more prominently the AB Clipper and its associated low will usher in low-level humidities of +90% overnight.
Depending on shortwave timing, this could be enough for some pretty snow showers and flurries to develop across MN tonight and into Christmas morning. Right now the s/w is marching across western NoDak, just getting ready to pass KBIS, with prevalent wind shift already occuring. Models seem to suggest a bit of slowing today, with arrival somwhere between sundown and midnight tonight. With moisture and cloud layer not exiting until noon-ish Christmas day, we can expect that small snow chance to exist from the time surface air temps approach freezing again, and Christmas afternoon. That temp point is progged by GFS to come around 9pm, and NAM around midnight. GFS has better handle on the system tracks recently, so I am going to (along with many of the NWS WFO's) going to lean towards it in producing my Noel forecast for Lakeville...peace and joy to you and yours!!!
Christmas Eve Day...Increasing cloudiness, high 44. South wind 5-10mph.
Christmas Eve...Mostly cloudy, overnight low of 28. 30% chance of snow showers or flurries after 9pm. West wind 5-7mph.
Christmas Day...Cloudy, 40% chc snow flurries or passing showers, high of 32. Northwest winds 10-15mph. Decreasing clouds in the evening, overnight low of 20.
Tuesday...Mostly sunny skies, high 31. North wind 5-7 mph. Low 22.