:: September Storms
Last year about this time -- as the nation was reeling in awe over the devestation of Hurricane Katrina -- a line of severe thunderstorms, producing hurricane force winds, plowed through MN. (see related article in my blog here). Tonight, a similar setup as that of last September is in place for severe weather across the area. Strong southerly flow, as progged and watched all week, has arrived in force. In advance of the intense trough (now across the MO river basin of Dakotas) local height falls have been rapid (over .30" here at our station since midnight) and the gradient remains steep as you head west towards the advancing, and still deepening, trough.
This afternoon and early evening, central and eastern MN will be spared. Western MN will not, as they already are under the gun at the time of this post: thunderstorms have fired over the Sioux Empire and on the winward side of the Couteu des Prairies in SD. These locations coincide with the RUC's modeling of a 70kt mid-low level jet max nosing right up over the Couteau. SPC issued a Tornado Watch for the eastern 1/2 of SD, but attm, this looks to be a stitch to far west. These storms should evolve into a MCS that will drop off the lee side of the Couteu and train up the MN River valley towards the TC metro sometime after sunset, bringing heavy rain showers, damaging wind, and a slight chance for hail to our area from 00Z and through the night.
The trough will advance to at least western MN overnight, and become more frontal, as the jet max will shift slightly zonal behind the front and allow cooler air to filter in. Meanwhile, the models show the low pressure center stacking up over NW MN for Sunday, and with the zonal shift of the jet may become cutoff for a time. This will prolong and propogate radial bands of showers and spotty thunder over the entire Gopher State Sunday night through Monday, amidst much cooler conditions. Here is the short-term scoop for Lakeville....
TONIGHT...Thunderstorms move in after 7-8pm, some could be heavy with damaging wind and hail. Chance of rain is 80%. Lows tonight 60-65. Strong south winds 10-20 mph continue.
SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy in morning, then partial clearing in afternoon. High 74. Wind shifting to the west 10mph. Chance of showers after dark, low 55.
MONDAY...Cloudy. Rain showers likely, with high of 55. Low 45.