lakeville weather journal

Models this AM are now showing a trend of stability on the short-term forecast. A couple of things for moderation from the last entry:

1) Trough is deepening over the Columbia River basin as I write...GFS has good focus on features and movement so I will lean more towards it for the next 24-72 hrs.

2) Low level flow has shifted gently to the SE this AM. DP's were already high as a moist pool of air shifted over us early this morning from NW MN, and now RUC and GFS agree on an intensifying LLJ max over the Dakotas moving east through the short term, increasing our warmth and moistiure even more.

3) GFS paints a slight ripple at H50 around 00Z this evening that may trigger some cloudiness, but too late for convection. This ripple, however preeceeds the big story...the longwave approaching from the Rockies, and on the doorstep Friday. I will match common thought from other local WFO's and raise POPs on Friday night a bit.

4) The GFS cuts off the low over MN, as mentioned before...but right now model has no real bearing on true precipitation genesis for the event...mainly because frontal passage timing is still a real unknown. The main certainty will be temps associated with the low and the cold front...NW MN gets tagged with some unseasonably cool temps (upper 40's for highs) while the GFS MOS for KLVN show X-temp readings of mid-upper 70's. This would possibly mean that the state will be (for the period Sat-Mon) split on separate sectors of the low and the front. However, I have a hard time believing that will last long...and to point, ETA shoves the low and CFP off by late Sunday.

So...for now, the update for the Labor Day Weekend forecast:

TODAY... Sunny turning Partly Cloudy by late afternoon. High 82. Light winds from the South. Low 62.

SATURDAY thru LABOR DAY... Partly to Mostly Cloudy. 30% chance of rain. Highs in the mid-60's, lows in the low 50s.