:: Rain or Drought?
Everyone is thinking it...I went for a walk around the neighborhood this evening, and those who could (per local watering restrictions) were giving lawns and gardens a good long drink. We have been running quite the rain deficit this summer, about 2-3" behind since early June. The Climate Prediction Center has targeted the upper midwest as likely for drought development. Meanwhile everyone would like to see a good soaker!
The weekend was yet another blue-ribbon set of days for boaters and beachgoers. Sunday cooled off in the wake of the suface cold front we watched develop and move in since Thursday. Now models are again trying to reset the scene for precip chances. The polar jet is now further north, and predicted to stay there. A sub polar branch is guessed to drop out of Saskatchewan by late Monday, giving enough spin above to then form a cut-off low in the mid levels amid the great plains. Should this 700MB low drop in at the right time, we could see a better chance of rain. Right now most guesses are around 50/50 through Wednesday. Tomorrows model runs and soundings will give us a better peak at what may transpire this week.
MONDAY... Dry and seasonal. Mostly sunny, High 82. Light easterly wind. Low 63
TUESDAY...30% chance of lingering AM showers, then partly cloudy, wamer with humidity increasing. 50% chc of thunderstorms re-developing after 4pm. High 85. Low 60 with rain ending by midnight. Southeast, turning southwest winds 5-10.
WEDNESDAY...Partly Cloudy. High 87. Slight chance of afternoon thunder. Low 64. Southwest wind turning northwest 10-15.
THURS-SUNDAY OUTLOOK...Hot and Dry again. Mostly sunny, Highs in low-mid 90's.