:: Midsummer Status Quo
Our hot weekend has ushered in a stretch of climatological status quo. Many forecasters were worried about the lack of precipitation coupled with the heat, and it has been problematic with wildfires now ravaging the BWCA in northeastern MN. Dewpoints in the area over the weekend were also high, pushing the humidex over 100, and keeping heat indicies in the upper 90's with the correlating temps. Some "heat bursts" were able to break the capped atmosphere and produce some splash and dash showers yesterday, and the weak surface front wandered mid-state throughout the day Sunday keeping clouds in tact.
We set a new record high of 97 on Saturday, with a heat index of 105 (another record). Dewpoints are now falling off as the front has pushed southeast...and despite the temps around 90, it feels much more bareable with dewponts back around 50. This reprive will hold through tuesday before the next shortwave and associated surface front approaches from the west. The ETA model has an impressive prog on the system, with all elements for strong convection and/or a soaking rain event coming together on Wednesday. Timing is still a struggle, however, and the GFS is dragging the system out a little. Given enormous precipatble water values, dewpoints surging north of 70 again, and theta-E advection pushing a strong ridge over the Sioux Empire region, I think we will have widespread precip and storms...at some time, or times.
Anomolies in between models include timing of/development of jetstream max nosing a left exit into west central MN, and the development of CAPE values pooling ahead of the front, around 3500-4500 J/kg. Future model runs should sew up the differences, however most weather pros are looking at MCS development ahead of a possible isontropic upglide overnight tues-wed AM. This may carry through during rush hour for the TC metro on Wednesday, with possible redevelopment pre-frontal passage Wednesday at supper time. Again, future models will test this theory. For now, I will stick to conservative MOS forecasts along with a hunch that the setup will drag per the GFS solution currently in hand.
MONDAY...Mostly Sunny and dry. High 90, Low 74. Northwest wind 5 mph.
TUESDAY...Partly Cloudy, High 92, Low 75...Westerly turning southerly winds 5-10 mph
WEDNESDAY...Partly Cloudy, High 93. 50% chance of showers and thunder after 6pm. Low 72.