:: Do Ya Wanna Get Rocked?
Today might be the day Twin Cities stormchasers get their wish...a local setup for severe weather to work. SPC even has us in the moderate risk for severe storms for the first time this season. Looking at the latest RUC model run (the 09Z run), the ingredients are coming together nicely indeed. Currently, an MCS did develop nocturnally over Nodak, and present WSR-88D radar loops on this activity show storms have reached mature stage and are dumping out through west central MN during dissipation. Models are guessing at some outflow boundary to set up near the EC/SE MN region this afternoon. Warm and moist air will surge up from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the cold front/shortwave moving in from Nodak overnight tonight. The outflow boundary prev mentioned will act as a virtual warm front in a classic triple-point setup by around 21Z it looks like. SPC forecasters are also looking at shear development...evident from RUC's modeling of 1000-700mb winds ramping up from the south, turning southwesterly in a velocity max northeast of the triple point, and then turning westerly in the upper levels. Daytime heating is a concern as well...highs will push up and over 90 in southeast/southcentral MN, with dewpoints mid-60's plus...the instability will be unfettered as any capping will surely be quelled by the outflow boundary, and/or the shortwave. If I can do updates through the day, I will, but for now, forecast looks preferable for a rockin evening for weather!
WEDNESDAY...Line of dissipating showers will affect TC Metro mid-morning, followed by a warm, humid afternoon...Showers and Thunderstorms, some severe, redevelop after 4pm. High 87, chance of rain 80%. Rain ends by midnight, low 65.
THURSDAY...Clear. High 85. Wind north 5-10mph. Low 65.
FRIDAY...Partly Cloudy. High 87, wind light and variable.