:: deja vu
It has been a slight respite for Pierre and the weather journal...but last week's trends were right on the mark...and our summer of normality, albeit a bit dry, continues. This week's big story is a total deja vu of the story about two weeks past, which I wrote up in "Total Hottness"...as a matter of fact, I could copy it verbatim. Let's take a look...
I am sure many of you have already seen in local media forecasts that the temps will be pushing the century mark (and possibly over that mark) into the weekend. All models are pointing at an impressive ridge of Continental Tropical - cT - (desert-borne) air surging into our region. Preceeding the hot push is a slight chance of convection Thursday night into Friday morning. A surface trough is hinted at by the ETA model specifically, whereas the GFS gets more bullish in the cT ridge buidling in under a zonal flow that wipes out any troughing in the lower levels. I am not conviced that the GFS has the best view of the sitch, however, and I want to remain optimistic on any chance of precip. Helping my optimism is humidity values and a strong Gulf-borne low-level flow preceeding the trough. Precipitable water values soar as well, pushing 2" plus. CAPE value predictions are boosted as well, and the vorticity max ridges over the same areas. This suggests a line of development somewhere in east-central Sodak Thursday after 21Z. Any MCS should carry into the TC Metro by early AM.
After the short wave event Thursday, temps will continue to build in earnest. MOS pitching 97 tops, but with the cooler tendancy of especially MEX output, I think the bumps to 100 are very justified. More hints being dropped as of late about another s/w trough passing through late Sunday, but too early to really give it creedence.
WEDNESDAY...Warmer, hazy, and humid, mostly sunny. High 87. Light and variable winds, Low 67.
THURSDAY...Hot, humid, hazy. Partly Cloudy, High 94. South wind 10 mph. 30% chc thunder late night, low 72.
FRIDAY...Remnant thunder in AM, Partly Cloudy, High 96. Low 72.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK... Sunny, HOT, highs 97 to 100. Lows mid-low 70's.
I think that about does it!!