:: Winds of Change?
A new synopsis seems to have taken over the next three-day period for the weather setup here in Lakeville. The week or so has been downright spectacular, as noted in many previous posts with "July in June" weather dominating. My predictions for fair weather and higher temps than expected by the other WFO's were on the mark. That pattern will return, but not until a slight regression occurs this weekend.
High pressure in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere is dominating the central US. Yesterday we saw a nearly perfect day as a result. High above us, the upper jet stream is coursing way up north, and digging sharply southward east of Lake Superior, placing the ridge axis directly over the Gopher State. Meanwhile the low-level jet, which is primarilly responsible for conveying moisture to the atmosphere, has nosed in from the SW overnight. Inherently warmer and moister than the dominating dryer cooler air aloft, the LLJ has set off some showers around the area this AM.
Going forward, this LLJ entrance will become more meridianal and tap gulf moisture, so models point to a surface low in NE that will extend a warm frontal boundary along the LLJ's postion and running across northern IA. If the warm front advances northward any, we will see much more in the way of precip over the next 48 hrs. Unfortunately, the models do not prog the warm front to move north of here, so we will remain cooler - and as the low moves out of NE into IA, winds will increase for us from the E and NE over the period. It will remain unsettled and showery as well, but no thunder to speak of as the upper ridge contains too much cool and dry air from Manitoba to spark large storms. Some elevated convection from dirunal heating cannot be ruled out...however no severe wx is chanced. Today (Fri) is only day really lacking sun in my optomistic opinion...and the weekend will remain relatively nice, albeit cooler -- much more like June!!
FRIDAY... Mostly Cloudy, High 66, Scatterd showers increasing in potential as day wears on. E wind 5-10 mph, Low of 55, rain chc 30% daytime, 60% after supper.
SATURDAY... Mostly Cloudy in AM then partial Clearing in the day. High 70. Breezy ENE wind 10-15 mph turning NNW. Low 50
SUNDAY...Partly Cloudy, warmer, high 77. Slight chance of a late afternoon thunderstorm (30%) Low, 55.