:: Rain Cometh
More June rain is expected today across the southern and central parts of MN, including Lakeville. Currently (0900 CDT) a dissipating MCS is dropping some very light precip as is slides off towards the SE after trekking across Dakota overnight. Current SFC low in Central NE per NOAA-MESONET analysis should slide northeast into the Sioux Empire by later this afternoon. A very pronounced mid-level trough associated with the low will move to a position near the I-29 corridoor in Dakota by mid-day before flattening a bit as frontogenisis occurs downline with a triple-point setup. The warm front for the triple-point is progged to evolve throughout the day, extending from the low ESE-ward, and pushing north. However, common thought among the WFO's early this AM is that the cooling effects of the dissipating MCS will halt northward propogation of the warm front. Current satellite imagry does show extensive MCS cloud cover over southern 1/2 of MN and northern 1/2 of IA, so this may indeed occur. However, I cannot rule out the chance that cloud dissipation will occur more rapidly, and warmer air surges father north than expected. Given a relatively strong LLJ core progged to nose into southern MN by 00Z on the most recent ETA model run, there could be a good possibility of southern MN getting exposed to the warm sector, and the triple-point stitting somewhere between SUX and OTG by the time convection re-fires around 21Z-00Z this afternoon/evening. Will have to keep close eye on it throughout the day...Other severe weather factors to watch as well: 1) position of LLJ per soundings (specifically the left front of the jet max) 2) evolution of instabilities per soundings, as models paint strongest CAPE and theta-E energies over SE Sodak...if they align more with the triple point, elevated convection potential increases.
TUESDAY... Mostly Cloudy AM skies and sprinkles clearing by mid-day. Thunderstorms redevelop by late afternoon, 60% chc of precip after 6PM for Lakeville. High 82, S winds 5-10. Low 62.
WEDNESDAY... Mostly Clear, partly cloudy in evening, high 85. 30% chc of showers or thunder after sundown. Low 58. SW wind 5-15.
THURSDAY...Partly Cloudy, High 83. Low 62.