:: Holiday Weekend Preview
Tame late June, post-solstice pattern in place currently...and I don't think anyone is really complaining!! This spring has not been very wet, however...and I think this is our only complaint here in Lakeville. Now that summer is here, maybe some July variety storms can help us out. We may get the chance Friday night into Saturday.
Currently, upper jet will flatten its amplitude before assuming a more zonal flow to begin July with. As mentioned last time, models still link this transition with a trough that will become more long-wave, and enter frontogenesis on the lee side of the Rockies tomorrow night. Low pressure will evolve over the NE plains and (depending on jet positon) may generate enough isentropic upglide to its east to give genesis to a warm front. Should Gulf air get tapped, system could intensify quickly before cold front passes area mid-Saturday AM. ETA model progs the system to take a more southwest-northeast path, with MN staying clear of a warm-sector MCS. GFS plots the low further north near FAR, hinting at the "run-home-to-mama" scenario it loves...you guessed it...triple point over the Couteau des Praries. We will have to see later runs to get a grip on ensemble differences.
Saturday into Independence Day, both models trend the pattern to zonality, giving creedence to more of what we saw early this week: short wave parade. Again, without a long-wave system in the output statistics, and with general solstice cT airmass in place, these ripples will be hard to predict. Fair weather should prevail for the most part, however, and any precip will be dirunal, "splash and dash" activity.
THURS... Hazy, but clear. (Haze will remain from Saskatchewan fires) High 84, SW wind 5 mph. Low 62
FRI... Clear in AM , then increasing clouds, high 86. Wind SSE 5-10. 50% chc thunder after 6pm, Low 65
SAT... Cloudy in AM, then clearing after 10 am, high 82. SW wind turning N, low 60
SUN thru INDEPENDENCE DAY... Seasonal. Highs 82-86.