:: Chances Are Good
Things came together over the last 24-36 hours in model runs, and now that the infamously expected trough has slid over the lee side of the Northern Rockies, it has intensified this AM on the Highline in MT. Satellite water vapor showed a definitive cyclonic swirl associated with the system, and surface front kicked off t-storms across the western Dakotas overnight. As for us, slight vort-max pushed by overnight as well, triggering TSRA over eastern counties of MN, mainly north of Lakeville, and east of the TC Metro.
Later today we will need some second looks at the upper air soundings, ABR INL and MSP all key in determining where best instability is occuring in late afternoon. All models point to theta-E ridge extending up into Sioux Empire, with instabilitiy building east rapidly with dirunal heating. MT/ND frontal system will dig SE and trigger strong convection from Dakotas, through NE and KS...where SPC is most worried for moderately severe weather. Any activity will have no problem tracking easterly towards TC metro. I had 50% chc going into this entry, MPX has now gone 60% with mention of severe, and I will concur. Updates to follow....
TODAY...MONDAY... Partly Cloudy, high 84, S wind 5-10, 60% chc Thunderstorms by dinnertime? Low 63
TUESDAY... Partly Cloudy, high 82, 40% chc showers and thunderstorms. SW wind turning W by midday.