:: What a Day!!
Above is Vorticity prog from the ETA model for 1300 CDT Wednesday
We hit 76!! Just think of all those forecasts a couple weeks back where I was thinking we would push 75, and it barely ever came true...now today when I thought 70 was reasonable, we break up to 76!! As moisture in the form of diurnal showers moved in, temps moderated back closer to 70-72. But what a day!! Sun mixed with the ol' splash and dash variety of showers. It was gorgeous...
Now on to pressing matters... Models are all in agreement about the unsettled pattern blocked in over MN. Yet another shortwave is going to swing down from Canada tomorrow around the axis of a surface low parked over northwest WI. Behind tomorrows wave will arrive the dreaded upper low the models have been forewarning of since last weekend. The kicker to all this is the mid-level vorticity...as both ETA and GFS models have the maximum vorticity values predicted to run from the MN Arrowhead, all the way down to Sioux Falls, and this "vort max" is predicted to stick around in the 700-500MB levels through late Friday. Precipitable water values in the models remain 1-1.5...couple that with the low(s), and the shower threat remains throughout.
Currently, we have mostly clear skies for the next few early AM hours. Then patchy showers will spread over metro thru sunrise. I like the MOS guideance from all models for tomorrow in relationship to sky conditions. Temps should remain supressed, and I think we will see 65 for sure, but would be surprised to go much higher...this is all dependent on amount of sun/cloud mix before deck of mid-level clouds overtakes us through the PM as the shortwave moves in and through. If conditions start out like Tuesday with lots of sun before noon, we will bust 70 again.
Wednesday... Partly Cloudy in AM, turning mostly cloudy after noon. 50/50 chc of showers. Cannot rule out a clap of thunder mixed in. High 67. NW winds 5-10
Wed Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers tapering off after sundown. Low 47. NW winds 5-10
Thurs/Thurs Night... Mostly cloudy, cooler. 40% chc scatterd showers. High 55. N wind 10-15 Low 42
Friday... Shower chance remains...temps 55-60, N-NW winds 5-15
Saturday... Partly cloudy, clearing, high 63. N winds turning NE 5-15.