:: Weekly Planner
The main plan is to look forward to the weekend in this post, as friends have been asking for a good outlook for fishing opener this Saturday. I have some thoughts...but first a quick look at Tues thru Fri:
Tonights weather seems to be the first indicator of a system that will stubbornly hang on for a bit more. Models point to a couple more short waves (areas of low pressure) to rotate in from Manitoba as the relative humidities stay between 50 and 60 percent. A surface low should set up shop over western Lake Superior tomorrow night, and we should have a fair shot at some precip through the evening, as we will be still on the "warm and moist" side of things. This system will spin NE to allow an upper level low to drop in here Wed night into Thurs. This will be one of those "cold pool" lows we have seen already this early spring: cool temps, dreary skies, and damp. The warmth will be trapped well south by the jet which will be diving down along the front range of the Rockies into TX, AR, and LA. The accompanying cold pool of air, while seemingly "parked" over MN will be clashing with warm, moist Gulf air in these southern locales, and a nice mesoconvective event should setup for anyone living south of the Ozarks on Wed night.
Post Thursday has a lot to do with that surface low over Lake Superior and the somewhat-correlated upper low. If the Gitchigummi low deepens much, which it may, progress of any clearing before Friday late will be tough. In wake of the whole system, the flow will remain NWerly as high pressure builds back in. The GFS model run at 18Z hints at another shortwave or frontal system getting us wet by suppertime on opener (Sat PM). I have little confidence in this, especially as other models are favoring a sluggish exit of the early week system, followed by a strong ridge of high pressure by Fri. That being said, I think the GFS has had a good handle of these early spring systems thus far, especially with the jet parking warmer temps and Gulf moisture south of Interstate 80.
So, my prognosis (or weekly planner) is this:
Tonight: 40% chc showers and thunder, low 53
Tuesday: Mostly Cloudy, High 73, humid, 30% chc of showers
Tues Night: Mostly Cloudy, low 45, 50% chance of showers after 5pm
Wed: Partly Cloudy, High 60, N winds 5-10
Wed Night: Cloudy, low 45, showers possible, W-NW winds 5-10
Thurs: Cloudy, cool, High 52 (ugh!), NW winds 10-15
Fri: Sunny, warmer, high 65, west winds 5-10
Sat: Partly Cloudy, high 70, southerly winds, 10-20
This is the longest stab at a forecast I have ever attempted. I really hope the GFS is wrongo on the wave progged for opener...but this is Minnesota!!