:: Mixed Bag, Storms for Late Tuesday
We are finally seeing the back side of the weather system that generated the continuous rain activity over the weekend. We have seen about 1.6" here in Lakeville, and even as I write scatterd showers continue to wrap through the area.
The noon hour surface analysis showed the low now over Sauk Center, MN, and continuing to head north. Later today a pretty strong upper jet stream will finally swoop out of Manitoba and push out the system. This will allow for high pressure to quickly fill back in, along with a very warm low-level jet from the southwest. Temps should rebound quickly tomorrow with clearing skies and winds from the south-southwest (maybe 75...it is my favorite temp to shoot for lately?)
The interesting feature is the destabilization of the atmosphere in this transition phase. As the low-level winds bring in the warm air, upper winds will continue to intensify. The GFS model shows a H3 jet max speed of 110 knots nosing into western MN on Tuesday night, approaching midnight Wednesday...and the directional flow of that upper jet is troughing around the associated low progged to move out of Saskatchewan into Nodak as this new weather maker heads for MN. That low will serve energy to "pump" moisture into the system, and mid-level exhange winds between the low-level jet and the upper-level jet may give the right "twist" to the atmosphere to destabilize.
What does this all mean? Thunderstorms...and perhaps some "heartier" ones (as one NWS forecaster in Chanhassen characterized them) at that. The Storm Prediction Center has taken note as well, and has included MN in a slight risk for the severe weather. Typically, if they are putting us in that category 36 hours out...they have good reason to. So for now, we can count on some more precip, and some thunder for late Tuesday night into early Wed AM. Like always, we will have to wait and see...
For today, mixed sun, clouds, and spotty showers...very "splash and dash weather"...and highs around 60. Clearing after sundown, lows should dip to around 45-50. Tuesday, sun in AM and early afternoon, high 75. Increasing clouds for evening.