:: Memorial Day - Severe Wx?
As expected, things are coming together for a possible severe weather event today in MN. The Storm Prediction Center has written a mesoscale discussion this morning for the potential hail and damaging winds that storms could produce if they develop mid-afternoon.
1650Z NOAA-Mesonet obs show the surface front just west of a KRRT-KAXN-KOTG position, and moving slowly east. Should things "fire" in the realm of thunderstorms, this line will be a focal point. Assuming around a 20-30 mph movement of the front, this line should be at or near the Lakeville area between 4-6pm. Here is the only anomoly for southern or even east-central sections of the state - atmospheric capping. When the heating of the atmosphere is relatively even and saturated as you go higher, there is less tendancy for convective "buoyancy" of the air. The latest raobs are not up yet, but the 7AM launches both at MPX and INL had 10C up at 700MB (around the 10000 ft level), which is pretty warm for just after sunrise! Assuming the CAP is still in place, especially in southern MN, convection will be prevented.
Assuming the CAP is eroded or weakened, Lakeville's chances are not as great as folks up north. Near-term model solutions (namely the RUC) show best instability and potential north of STC through BRD, and then up towards INL. Although the ETA puts more instability behind (or in the wake of) the front, development of any line or complex of storms will most likely be north-to-south. In any case, I do think we will get wet...not certain about windy or drenched, but we will get wet!
REST OF MEM DAY... Mostly Sunny thru mid-afternoon, turning partly to mostly cloudy in evening, 60% chc of thunderstorms, some could be severe. High 95, wind S-SW 8-10, turning to the W-NW after sundown. Low 70.