:: Let's Get Ready to Rumble!
All guidance from yesterday's entry regarding thunder tonight is on par. The picture is becoming more clear now on timing and strength as the models are settling for commonality in some elements. The NAM and GFS both have the mid-level convergence progged at 00Z-03Z, right between FSD and SUX. The cold front is taking shape in western NoDak right now, with definate wind shifts occuring last hour (1400Z) in DIK and RAP, and west of that line. Front should be about ABR-HON by mid-late afternoon, and I expect storms to start "firing" along the Dakota/MN borders shortly thereafter.
Severity will be determined by how much convergence actually occurs. CAPE values are modeled by the NAM to push 1500-2000 J/kg by 00Z in SW MN, so we know we have the instablility. Adding to these factors is an intense dirunal heatup...temps should break 80 in that part of the state today. SPC has wind and hail damage possible with their severity risk assesment. If upper jet (now predicted to sweep in quickly in late afternoon out of the west) intensifies at all, I think tornadic threat for SW MN will increase.
For us in Lakeville...today sunny and 76. Clouds increasing approaching mid-afternoon. Storms after 9PM, some with strong winds. Will update as needed.