:: Here Comes the Rain Again
My Tuesday forecast has been right on track with one exception - temps have now well surpassed by guess of 76. We hit 84 in the 1400 hour, and that temp seems to have stabilized. Dewpoint has now hit 50 as well, so we are experiencing a summer (not spring) day in Lakeville. Looking at the NOAA-MADIS network of surface observations, temps have hit 88-90 and dewpts are 60-65 along the SD-MN border. Forcing is farther west yet, but once it moves into this area of maximum potential (in terms of heating and moisture) some decent storms should fire up in SW MN.
I would expect a MCS (mesoconvective system) forming and moving out of the Sioux Empire ENE towards us late tonight - let's say 9-10pm. Depending on the extent of the MCS and the following debris layers of cloudiness tomorrow, we may have a secondary event firing overhead around the lunch hour Wednesday. Precipitable water values in the models continue to run relatively high for the period, so in any case higher chances of precip are better than lower. As the associated low centers over western Lk Superior tomorrow afternoon, and then moves ESE thru the day, we should at least see some wrap-around showers as the low deepens.
Lucky for us, warm advection will continue through the week, and although tonight and tomorrow's passing system will slightly lower the temps, we will not see highs drop out of the 70's. In fact, we could see a rebound to 80's pushing 90 by weekend. The GFS outputs also tag on some hefty dewpts, so I can see a good shot of mid-80's plus as long as we maintain a southerly-or-westlery flow over the weekend.
TUES NIGHT - T-storms arrive 9-10pm, south winds 5-10, some storms with heavy rain, freq ltning. Low 67
WED AM - Partial Clearing, south wind, turning westerly 5-10, increasing clouds after lunch
WED PM - 50% showers and thunder after 1pm, high 75. Wind turning WNW 10-15
THURS - Mostly Cloudy, 30% chc of passing showers/thunder, high 77, WNW wind 10-15
FRI - Mostly Sunny, Dry, high 84
SAT (MN Bass Opener...how is this for biased optimism?!) - Partly Cloudy, Humid, high 88!!