:: Fresh Start to the Week
I am glad I took (most of) the weekend off from forecasting. The MPX forecasters and the local news guys all missed the vorticity-induced strand of showers that scattered down from ND into MN throughout the day. This was behind an unforecast shift in the jet that caused the instability to increase. Most of the Twin Cites metro saw a beautiful morning today with loads of sun and quickly increasing temps level off into mediocrity with temps only barely tagging the 60 degree mark by the beginning of sundown and mostly cloudy skies.
That impulse has moved east now, and skies are clearing out. Winds have already dropped silent, and without any low-level advection to speak of under the increasing high pressure, frost concerns are in the cards tonight in rural areas. Mainly north and east of the Metro, temps will definitively hit close to freezing, and with dewpoints right about 30-33, that means frost. Here in suburban Lakeville, we will miss the mark...I am thinking about 38 for the low (still chilly tho!)
So this week will have a nice fresh start. A cool Monday AM with sunny skies will create a good environment for dirunal heating. We should see 70 for real tomorrow. Tuesday introduces a nice ripple in the mid and upper level jets, which accoring to early models will bring a rain/thunder feature for Tuesday PM. The SPC raised their eyebrows tonight over this feature, and put us under a slight risk for severe storms for that time period. The GFS wants to give it all to us; timing the precip in "prime time" around the 00Z mark, precip H2O and lifted indicies at sub-tropic levels, and the vorticity plots lining up in classic form for a MSP-area severe weather outbreak. The ETA wants to put these features in a concentrated MCS forming along the SD-NE-IA border intersections, and move NE into MN. This has been a common trend for the ETA this spring, without much merit. ETA has nice CAPE predictions as well, but they align more with a West-Central MN spawning ground for the event.
General agreement in the models about the "instigator": a short wave and associated surface cold front that will push over the Central Rockies by late Monday night. Future model runs should hopefully give some creedence to the placement of our rain and thunder by tomorrow night.
MONDAY/MON NIGHT - Clear, light winds, high 70, low 45
TUESDAY - Clear turning partly cloudy in late afternoon, High 76, S wind 5-8 mph
TUESDAY NIGHT - Partly Cloudy, 50% chance showers and thunderstorms, 6-8pm, low 55
WEDNESDAY - Clearing skies at daybreak, then clouds return in erly afternoon, 40% chc showers and thunder, high 72-75. Low wed night 48.