:: Convective Update 2
Interesting setup and resolution to tonights convective events across MN. Original line of storms (as depiected and commented on in the preceding post) fell apart after crossing the Couteau des Praries into west central MN. Then the front stalled out...in its place right now is a low pressure trough running currently Devils Lake, ND, to Morris, MN to Fairmont, MN, with a pressure of around 963 mb. This stallout occured just about the time the dryline set up along this same area, and with the cap eroded just after sundown significant potential remained for thundercell development. The bulk of activity has churned up along a line from Anoka to Victoria to Mankato to Fairmont (all in MN). Cells have clipped east-north-east at 30-40 mph.
As I write, MPX's 88D has picked up another line forming along the same points, now extending to Spencer, IA (at 2315CDT/0415Z). Some of these cells may work their way up to the southern metro and Lakeville. I would say at this point we have seen the bulk of activity for the night, although preciplitable water values have remained high in the models, most of this fuel is being stayed in Iowa, where they have had more severe activity tonight.
40% chance of showers and thunder through 2AM, then mostly cloudy thru the night, low temp of 53.