:: Finally, 75??
I have been waiting patiently for the temps this week to get above 70, and push 75. Today might be the day...high pressure continues to dominate. Winds are finally shifting to the south, and the air is still extremely dry. So dry in fact that Red Flag Warnings continue for parts of east-central MN. Fire weather for Lakeville is in a lower "danger" rank, but fine-fuel moisture is at its lowest since the thaw (pushing a 90 rating now - very dry). Temp-wise, I am sticking to my guns, and I think 75 is a good possibility.
Moisture is in the cards, however, and the biggest question in the short term is timing. Right now, a low pressure trough has swung out of Alberta and is now digging deeper across the Dakotas. By the time the new models this afternoon come out, the timing and placement of any convective activity (t-storms) and continued shower events should become more evident.
For now, my guess is that the frontogenesis will be well defined along a Devils Lake-Jamestown-Aberdeen-Huron line in the Dakotas by late this evening (lets say 2100 CDT). This puts my guess a little ahead of the NWS prognositcators. My reasoning is this: in looking at 800MB winds (wind at around 6000 feet), the southerly flow is going to pick up dramatically over the next 24 hours. Then an accompanying jet up at 18000 feet digs in behind the surface front in the Friday AM hours. My take is that the southerly advection will fuel moisture adequately, but lift and instability will depend on the timing. IF the front slows up a little after midnight tonight, I can see some AM thunder here. After that, showers and a prolonged rain event will depend on upper winds post-noon Friday.
Enjoy today: 0730 temp was 50, its 70 now at 1230...let's see, 20 degree increase over 5 hrs, so that's 4 degrees per hour...let's say 2-3 more heating hours to go...at this rate, we will hit 78??? :)